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Tonight
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the time before time begins
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The universe, Black Holes
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God and the laws of Science
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Profº Stephen Hawking
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Doctor Carl Sagan
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and Arthur C. Clarke
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discuss the mysteries men faces as he starts
to explore the stars
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Degenerative disabilities prevents Stephen
Hawking from speaking a word
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But he reason above them to become a
brilliant mathematician and teacher
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using a computer driven voice synthesizer
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He's told the world how the universe began
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and now he is seeking the ultimate theory of
how it works
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Arthur C. Clarke invented the communication
satellite long before the technology exist
to launch one
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That vision of the future father the global
village
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his novels and stories including 2001 Space
Odyssey
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have inspired generations of real life
astronauts
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Carl Sagan sent man's first messages to
the stars aboard Nasa's space probes
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his sure will not be alone in the cosmic
widerness
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Doctor Sagan join our discussion from
Cornell University in NY State
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So I check whether he could hear us over one
of Arthur satellites
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Yes. Communication satellite technology is
working very well, Thank You
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Arthur can you hear all right?
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I can hear fine
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And professor Hawking are you in touch with
Carl Sagan?
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Yes
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Profº Hawking in fact has just made
publishing history
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by writing a book about hard theorical
science which has outsold
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even Michael Jackson
in the bestsellers lists
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It is called a Brief History of Time
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and we will be talking about the concepts
that are in it
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Now Stephen Hawking has engaged in a search
for the ultimate answer
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a grand, unified theory that will explain
everything
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Stephen Hawking that is quite an agenda. How
are getting on with it?
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Let me just explain that what happens when
Profº Hawking wishes to speak
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He lost his voice a couple of years ago. And
now has to use a voice synthesizer
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And he can control a squeeze box in his hand
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And on the video screen on his
chair he's got a vocabulary
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which scrolls trough and he can pick out a
word that he wants
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and these words are then assembled into a
sentence
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and when the sentences are ready he can
passes it trough the voice synthesizer
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so whenever you are ready profº Hawking we
would like to hear from you
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In the last 300 years we have discovered the
laws and covered the universe
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in all by the most extreme conditions
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I think there is a reasonable chance that we
may find the complete set of laws
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by the end of the century if
we don't blow ourselves at first
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If we do find a complete unified theory will
be a great triumph not only for scientist
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but for ordinary people as well
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In time, the unified theory will be
simplified and taught in schools at least in
outline
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Then everyone will have some idea of how the
universe works
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Well that is a tremendous vision
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Now Carl Sagan you wrote an introduction to
the book
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And of the striking things that you said is
that
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Is only children now a days who ask the big
questions
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because they don't know enough
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What I was trying to get across was the
notion that the school system
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It seems to me that they have an attitude of
discouragement
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Of asking fundamental questions
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If a 5-6 year old asks why the moon is round
or why the grass is green
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The usual adult answer, at least in my
experience, is to discourage the child
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Say "what shape did you expect
the moon to be? A square?"
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"What color did you expect
the grass to be? Blue?"
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Instead of saying: Those are interesting
questions let’s try to find out the answers
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Or "Maybe nobody knows the answer
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and when you grow up you will be able to
discover the answer
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It will be very healthy
for the human species
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if there were less discouragement and more
scientists
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Arthur Clarke?
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I wonder about science which is because it
does free the imagination
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and it does inspire people to become
scientists
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and astronauts
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maybe for the very old man by coming up and
say to me
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You know your book turn me into a small boy
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Excellent. Now I've planned a reasonably
finite structure for our little colloquium
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And I’d like to start it, if I may, with
Profº Hawking
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How did the universe start? With a Big bang?
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We observe that the distant galaxies are
moving away from us
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This means that they must have blow
themselves together in the past
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In fact, one can show that all the galaxies
must have been on top of each other
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about 15 billion of years ago
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this was real big bang not the puny things
that took place
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on the stock exchange a couple of years ago
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It was the beginning of the universe and of
time itself
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Anything that happened before the big bang
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could not affect what happened after
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so we can neglect the events before the big
bang
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and say that the time began at the big bang
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After the Big Bang we believe that the
universe expanded in a very rapidly
inflationary manner
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Again this inflation in the universe quite
puts modern economic inflation in the shade
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An increase of billion of billions of
percent in a tiny fraction of the second
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Of course, that was before the present
government
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During the inflationary period the universe
borrowed heavily formed from its
gravitational energy
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To finance the creation of more matter
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The results was a triumph for the Reagan
economics:
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A vigorous in the expanding universe filled
with material objects
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The debt of gravitational energy will not
have to be repaid until the end of the
universe
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I'd like to stay with this basic proposition
for time beginning: The big Bang Theory
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And then I come to you Carl Sagan could you
help me
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by putting it into layman terms what was
involved with this Big Bang?
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Well,... we... here we are in a planet,
which is about five thousand million of
years old
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The sun around it goes is not much older
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It is part of a galaxy which is a perhaps
10-12 thousand of million years old
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Which is one of perhaps hundreds of
thousands of millions of other galaxies
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And none of these planets, suns and galaxies
was around at the time of Big Bang
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At the time of Big bang there was energy,
elementary particles
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which slowly evolved into the kind of
universe we know it today
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We are the product of the grand evolutionary
sequence cosmic evolution
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about which we are only occasionally aware
of one of the great accomplishments of Dr.
Hawking
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Is to plug us better in to the knowledge of
this long evolutionary sequence
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What I have in my mind is a picture that
Carl Sagan had been lead me towards to
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Of the whole universe in quite amazingly
small packages. Like putting the whole world
into a matchbox
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Immensely dense Immensely tiny. In fact
sometimes it is kind of disappearing into a
little point
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Is this the earliest imaginable
point that our minds are
taking us to so far Carl Sagan?
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Well, we..as Dr. Hawking said: The Galaxies
are expanding, running away from each other
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The further away they are from each other
the faster they are running away
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If you run the cosmic movie back into time
you will come to a moment, perhaps 15-10
thousands of millions of years ago
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In which all the matter in the universe was
touching in, if you like, a point
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And the key, unanswered and perhaps
unanswerable question is:
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Where did all that
matter energy come from?
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What was before that?
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And if it was made from nothing:
Who made it?
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And who made the maker?
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And of course an infinite
regress behind that
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Is the universe still expanding fast? I
mean, It is a lot of more room in space, as
i think?
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for the universe to carry on and getting
bigger?
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As far as I know: Nothing in the way, and
the expansion continues. The question is:
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Whether there is sufficient matter in the
universe? Matter that we have not yet
counted?
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That will slow the expansion down and stop
it and have the expanding universe followed
by a collapsing universe
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Or whether there is not enough matter to
stop the expansion and so the expansion will
continue forever
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This is an observational question which is
still unresolved
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and the Hubble space telescope...Who knows?
Might be launched next year if we are lucky
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Might answer this question...
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Profº Hawking uses a very striking
proposition of the earth borrowing this
energy from itself
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Now in striking banking terms,
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Let me do the overdrawn now in the end there
is going to be a collapse a big Crunch
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So does Big Bang get followed inevitably by
Big Crunch?
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No, not inevitably. It depends on how much
matter there is on the universe
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Which is still an unsolved issue. I should
say that the prevailing opinion is that
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the universe will continue expanding
forever, but in my opinion is by no means a
very secure conclusion
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Now let bring in the poet of my side here.
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Arthur Clarke, you know what T.S. ELLIOT
says " This is the way the world ends,
not with a Bang but a whimper"
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When you think of the end of the world, if
you think of the end of the world
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Does it ends with a bang or a whimper?
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Coming along, we like to think it will end
with a Bang
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Of course we will never know, this is a long
road way in the future
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Some...billions.. tens of billions...
possibly much far in the future
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As Carl said, we may have the answers to
these questions in a very few years
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If the Hubble Space telescope gets
successfully into orbit and focus to the
boundaries of the universe
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If we are as living in a little suburb of
the galaxy
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Can you force a time when we will need to
get out of the suburb and colonize somewhere
else?
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Because of the gradual
curve towards the end?
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Well, I think the human race.. If it
survives the next few years will go on to
colonize
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First the solar system.. and then will send
ships out to the stars
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And ultimately perhaps throughout the
galaxies
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But if the expansion of the universe is fast
enough, we will never be able to keep up
with it
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Now, one of the fastidid aspect that is
raised is the question of time itself in the
book
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Now.. we all think.. we know what time is.
It is a lentlessmarch forward
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But for the purposes of you arguments
Stephen Hawking you use a mathematical
concept you called "Imaginary Time"
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Which seems to be able to run backwards as
well as forwards?
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In our theories there are two types of time
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There is what is called real time.
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This is the kind of time that is measured by
a clock
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The time that we feel passing, the time that
we grow older
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Then there is imaginary time
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Of course imaginary time is an idea that
science fiction writers, like Arthur, have
used in their stories
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But imaginary time is also a well defined
mathematical concept
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it can be thought as a direction of time
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that is at right angles to ordinary, real
time, in certain sense.
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The universe has a beginning in real time at
the Big Bang
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And it may well have an end, if it collapses
to a Big Crunch
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But in imaginary time it has no beginning or
end
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Rather, imaginary time is closed on itself
like the surface of the earth
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The surface of the earth
doesn't have any beginning or end
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I know because I’ve been around the world
and I didn't fall off
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Individual Particles can travel trough
imaginary time and gets back in a nearlier
real time
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But I don't believe that people will
ever be able to travel back in time
like in the film "Back to the Future"
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I'm gonna come first,
if I may, to you Carl Sagan,
because this idea in Profº Hawking's book
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that there is 4 extra dimensionals model of
the universe. With no boundaries... but
finite.. just like the earth
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This to me is really stretching my own
capacity for imagination to the upmost
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How do you turn it into words for me a
layman?
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Well.. the first thing i would say
is not to feel bad... if it's not
immediately intuitively obvious
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Our ability to understand things instantly,
so called "Common Sense"
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Derives for a some certain range of size,
and speed, and duration
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That are appropriate for human existence
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We know about thing from the tenth of
millimeter to a few kilometers
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From a fraction of a second to a lifetime...
and so on..
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So when we are dealing with matters of
quantum physics..
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we have particles of a size of ten to the
minus of thirteenth centimeters
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Or in cosmology... we are talking about of
ten billion light years or more
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It is very reasonable that our intuition is
not adaqueted to the task
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One point I would like to make about this is
that every human culture
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has a set of creation myths
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But they are in the realm of mythology or
religion or folklore
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And of course they are all coherent and
consistent
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The great thing that is happening in our
time is that we are able to a
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method which can actually make some progress
towards the real universe out there
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To find out something about our origins and
this is the scientific method applied to the
science of cosmology
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So I know that is not a direct answer to
your question but I thought it was more
important
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to address the issue of feeling unhappy
because is wasn't immediately understandable
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Yes, I find that extremely soothing actually
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because it is the kind of unformidable task
of grasping this
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that makes me want to retreat into trivial
questions like
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Is this idea of predicting backwards is
going to put astrologists out of business?
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Nothing will put astrologist out of business
!!
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Well.. that is certainly the attitude of
touching the lightness of this tremendous
issues that we are discussing
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Infinity, black Holes and Imaginary time
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And at this stage...
let's relax a little bit and have a bit of
fun with mathematics at the most abstruse
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I'm going to ask Arthur Clarke here to
do something doodling with his computer
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And with a fascinating exercise with complex
numbers, which is called the Mandelbrot set
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Now, this is name is in honor of a French
scientist working for IBM
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It's a mathematical equation
which leads us towards the infinite
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In fact, it makes the mathematics of the
universe visual and incredibly beautiful
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This is what we would see if we had eyes to
see it when order meets chaos
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This is what is going on in the universe
everyday
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And ordered universe is breaking down and
becoming more disordered
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This is the second law of
therm dynamics in action. What
Stephen Hawking calls Murphy's Law
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Now Dr. Clarke will be using your computer
back home in Sri-Lanka to
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00:19:43,065 --> 00:19:50,072
to explore the Mandelbrot set at incredible
high magnifications..
219
00:19:50,372 --> 00:19:55,538
And Yes,... well this strange looking object
is the Mandelbrot set
220
00:19:55,823 --> 00:20:02,715
which is actually extraordinary simply
concept is to find behind the equation of
just two terms
221
00:20:03,032 --> 00:20:09,328
Z2 + C, that is all that is to it, that is a
simple equation. Z2 + C
222
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,805
You feed a number into it, then carry on
over and over again
223
00:20:14,058 --> 00:20:18,839
to crank the number back and round around.
And plot the results on screen.
I'm not going to detail
224
00:20:19,057 --> 00:20:21,621
But this is the first appearance of the set.
225
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,747
And what it does is to divide all possible
numbers into two categories
226
00:20:26,978 --> 00:20:32,589
It's a map or a boundarie or a fence,
if you like, diving one plus
other number for another
227
00:20:33,195 --> 00:20:38,574
And you can tell your computer to go into
any spot here and say
228
00:20:38,993 --> 00:20:44,335
recompute that area to a higher degree of
precision and then blow it up on the screen
229
00:20:44,685 --> 00:20:49,819
So you can use a computer as a microscope
and you can continue that process forever
230
00:20:50,435 --> 00:20:53,686
Some of the images are incredibly beautiful,
they are going to have a greater impact
231
00:20:53,967 --> 00:20:56,851
on artists of design in
the next decade or so
232
00:20:57,584 --> 00:21:02,248
I found what look like black holes and I’d
like to show to you
233
00:21:02,657 --> 00:21:07,665
What I’m going to do now is to send to it,
is to zoom into it, equation of magnification
234
00:21:08,193 --> 00:21:13,634
Manifold, and if I press the right button,
it should happen now
235
00:21:14,384 --> 00:21:18,557
The computer will now review this image, and
I think you will agree
236
00:21:18,927 --> 00:21:22,383
when it comes up,
it's a very impressive black hole
237
00:21:22,653 --> 00:21:27,713
And it will be more so and I start
it.....into action
238
00:21:28,615 --> 00:21:31,166
Oh yes! It is magnificent, isn't it?
239
00:21:31,429 --> 00:21:32,961
Oh you hate you seen nothing yet
240
00:21:34,609 --> 00:21:39,861
I should explain that this magnification,
remember the original picture, which we took
that was the same area
241
00:21:40,296 --> 00:21:42,876
This time I’ve magnified it more than a
thousand times
242
00:21:43,092 --> 00:21:47,907
So the picture it was first is now 500 feet
across. Now let's see if this works
243
00:21:49,358 --> 00:21:50,434
Now isn't that lovely?
244
00:21:53,155 --> 00:21:55,622
So now there is matter streaming into this
black hole
245
00:21:56,188 --> 00:22:02,221
Well, now... when I found this black hole I
started to exploring the neighborhood
246
00:22:02,813 --> 00:22:06,526
And.. I very quickly found an HONOR
247
00:22:07,497 --> 00:22:10,063
That's Lovely
248
00:22:10,293 --> 00:22:15,511
Now, this is a second black hole, this look
like the earlier one, but this is one a far
greater magnification
249
00:22:15,546 --> 00:22:22,045
the original Mandelbrot set now i think is
about 10 million miles wide
250
00:22:22,286 --> 00:22:23,535
This is enormiusly bigger
251
00:22:24,219 --> 00:22:27,201
The first one you saw had essentially the
same kind of pattern.
252
00:22:27,798 --> 00:22:37,015
This is black hole nº 3.. and this one..
took me 22 hours of computing in the day
before I left Sri-Lanka
253
00:22:38,027 --> 00:22:39,731
I let the computer running all night
254
00:22:40,182 --> 00:22:45,197
And I’m ought to put this one because on
this scale at the original middle picture
you saw
255
00:22:45,673 --> 00:22:52,181
This has the width of the orbit of Mars, so
you understand that no human being has ever
seen that
256
00:22:52,570 --> 00:22:55,878
With this pattern before. Simply because of
probabilities
257
00:22:55,913 --> 00:22:59,263
And you can explore the Mandelbrot set by
growing up missing pieces of it
258
00:23:00,122 --> 00:23:04,032
And you are pretty sure that no one has ever
seen that.. I'm the first person to see it
259
00:23:04,455 --> 00:23:07,097
And which time you will be drawn toward
260
00:23:07,132 --> 00:23:08,047
You are sucked into it
261
00:23:08,617 --> 00:23:09,517
Mathematical infinity
262
00:23:09,552 --> 00:23:14,502
Into smaller.. Yes.. this is real
mathematical infinity.. this goes on forever
and ever
263
00:23:14,972 --> 00:23:19,346
Limited only by the capacity of the machine
and the speed which it can do the
calculations
264
00:23:19,776 --> 00:23:22,844
I'm doing calculations here..
you may not and see that..
265
00:23:23,083 --> 00:23:25,899
this ENORMUS long number.. there are 22
digits of numbers or so..
266
00:23:26,156 --> 00:23:28,582
and the Machine is multiplying those to get
a 100 times a second
267
00:23:28,617 --> 00:23:33,170
Now, the thing that fascinates me about this
is that this is the infinity detailed
268
00:23:33,459 --> 00:23:37,355
You go on forever and ever..
I'd like to ask to Stephen this question
269
00:23:38,012 --> 00:23:41,458
Is the real universe also in infinity
detailed?
270
00:23:41,493 --> 00:23:44,073
I mean we know we have MOLECULS, atom,
electrons, protons
271
00:23:44,330 --> 00:23:47,724
sub-atomic level to the quarks so far
272
00:23:48,233 --> 00:23:53,153
But does it continue forever and ever? Or is
there a limit? Is there a base for the real
universe?
273
00:23:55,389 --> 00:23:56,981
Professor Hawking?
274
00:24:01,496 --> 00:24:06,952
We will discover new structures when look at
the universe in smaller and smaller scales
275
00:24:08,923 --> 00:24:13,668
But in the case of the universe there seems
to be a limiting scale
276
00:24:16,066 --> 00:24:22,199
It is called the "Planck Length" and it is
about a million billion billion times
smaller than an inch
277
00:24:24,860 --> 00:24:30,045
This means that there is a limit to how
complex the universe can be
278
00:24:32,099 --> 00:24:37,549
It also means that the universe could be
described by a theory that is very simple
279
00:24:37,956 --> 00:24:40,384
at least on scales of the "Planck Length"
280
00:24:41,918 --> 00:24:45,021
I just hope that we are smart enough to find
it
281
00:24:48,108 --> 00:24:50,730
Are we smart enough to find it, Arthur?
282
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:59,020
Well,... I wonder.. because after all we are
simple primitive organisms and the universe
is very old
283
00:25:00,505 --> 00:25:03,743
And I yes don't know.. I'd like to think
so.. but then there is a feeling..
284
00:25:04,344 --> 00:25:08,472
When we found it, then what? where do we go
from here?
285
00:25:12,058 --> 00:25:16,158
I'd like to turn our attention back
on to our profº Stephen Hawking
286
00:25:16,831 --> 00:25:21,286
Do you think that we could ever hope to use
the old science fiction trick of
287
00:25:21,321 --> 00:25:25,741
Diving into a black hole and then traveling
to another part of the cosmos?
288
00:25:31,658 --> 00:25:36,146
Some recent work indicates that particles
that falls into a black hole
289
00:25:36,404 --> 00:25:40,807
Can come out again out from another black
hole somewhere else in the universe
290
00:25:42,557 --> 00:25:46,020
At first sight that seems to the ideal
method of space travel
291
00:25:48,810 --> 00:25:51,808
Just find a black hole and jump in it
292
00:25:53,305 --> 00:25:54,590
But there are Snags.
293
00:25:56,841 --> 00:26:01,898
First that doesn't seem to be anyway
to choose where you will come out
294
00:26:04,772 --> 00:26:10,216
Worst than that your history and real time
you will come to a sticky end
295
00:26:10,496 --> 00:26:14,775
As you are torn apart by the gravitational
fields inside the black hole
296
00:26:16,233 --> 00:26:22,338
Your history and imaginary time will
continue out of the other black hole
297
00:26:24,418 --> 00:26:29,416
But that might not be much consolation to
someone being made into spaghetti
298
00:26:32,105 --> 00:26:36,762
That will be like traveling on some Air
Lines I could name
299
00:26:38,660 --> 00:26:43,527
So how do you see the that role of science
fiction
300
00:26:43,764 --> 00:26:48,627
Is it purely escapism or do you see as
having a very real purpose
301
00:26:49,155 --> 00:26:53,609
In broughting our pattern of thinking,
opening our minds to the kind of
302
00:26:53,842 --> 00:26:56,551
vast concepts in which we are discussing
today?
303
00:26:56,919 --> 00:27:00,139
First of all, there is no real objection to
escapism in the right places
304
00:27:01,468 --> 00:27:07,563
In fact, CS News once remarked me,
the only people who don't really like,
who object to escapism are jailers
305
00:27:08,682 --> 00:27:14,246
We all want to escape occasionally but
Science Fiction is often very far from
escapism
306
00:27:14,766 --> 00:27:18,996
In fact, you might say the Science fiction
is escapism as escape into reality
307
00:27:19,676 --> 00:27:25,863
Is a fiction which does concern yourself
with really issues
308
00:27:26,611 --> 00:27:28,874
The origin, the man, our future
309
00:27:29,218 --> 00:27:33,060
In fact, I don't think... i can not think
in any form of fiction which is more
310
00:27:33,095 --> 00:27:35,246
More concern with really issues, reality
311
00:27:35,964 --> 00:27:38,528
Well, what do you have to say to that
Professor Hawking?
312
00:27:51,479 --> 00:27:57,295
I don't believe in stories at flying Soucers
and another unidentified flying objects
313
00:27:58,839 --> 00:28:01,211
If time travel were possible
314
00:28:01,712 --> 00:28:05,366
we should have already been visited by
people from the future
315
00:28:07,102 --> 00:28:11,743
I think if we were been visited by people
from another time or another planet
316
00:28:12,211 --> 00:28:16,993
It would be much more obvious and probably
very unpleasant
317
00:28:18,549 --> 00:28:24,695
I don't want to make contact with another
civilization except at a safe distance
318
00:28:26,118 --> 00:28:31,726
It might be like north Americans Indians
making contact with a white men
319
00:28:33,226 --> 00:28:36,213
I badly wish they had never sold Manhattan
320
00:28:39,271 --> 00:28:45,943
Carl, you are the world's leading expert in
the search for extra terrestrial intelligence
321
00:28:46,205 --> 00:28:49,033
Now Profº hawking doesn't want
to make contact with them,
322
00:28:50,037 --> 00:28:51,978
Why do you want to make contact with them?
323
00:28:52,479 --> 00:28:55,268
Well.. first of all I would say we have
little choice in the matter
324
00:28:56,677 --> 00:29:03,228
We have already announced, rather i should
say Magnus
325
00:29:03,673 --> 00:29:05,655
Your followers have already announced
326
00:29:06,675 --> 00:29:10,377
The fact that there is a low level technical
civilization at this part of the galaxy
327
00:29:11,053 --> 00:29:14,176
Because television signals get out at the
speed of light
328
00:29:14,913 --> 00:29:22,058
And since any other civilization who detects
those signals is unlikely to be at or
329
00:29:22,540 --> 00:29:25,290
before our state of technological events
330
00:29:26,016 --> 00:29:28,743
since we just invented radio technology so
to say
331
00:29:29,363 --> 00:29:32,442
They are much more likely to be in our
technological future
332
00:29:33,047 --> 00:29:38,752
And the question is to whether their
intentions are BEGNY or
333
00:29:39,425 --> 00:29:41,411
otherwise is of course adventuristic
334
00:29:41,740 --> 00:29:44,663
But we have nothing to say about the matter
335
00:29:45,382 --> 00:29:50,256
So therefore i think we might as well hope
it's beny if they are out there
336
00:29:50,457 --> 00:29:53,346
From my point of view, the search for extra
terrestrial life
337
00:29:53,753 --> 00:29:56,053
And in special the search for extra
terrestrial intelligence
338
00:29:56,581 --> 00:30:02,311
is one of the key Philosophical, scientific,
and human questions that have been posed
339
00:30:02,346 --> 00:30:07,114
But we are at the very beginning of
searching, surely it is important for us to
know the answer
340
00:30:07,473 --> 00:30:09,687
One thing that interests me a great deal is
the way
341
00:30:09,722 --> 00:30:15,687
which public perception of beings from outer
space have had changed over the years
342
00:30:15,917 --> 00:30:18,651
They used to be the badies.. But Now..
343
00:30:18,965 --> 00:30:25,502
there’s is an optimistic feeling that any
extra terrestrial life is if not beny
344
00:30:25,537 --> 00:30:29,783
is at least not as hostile and aggressive as
the one we used to fear
345
00:30:30,032 --> 00:30:32,064
Is this the drifting of your writings as
well Arthur?
346
00:30:32,315 --> 00:30:37,159
Yes, I'm an optimistic and I believe
that any hostile civilization
347
00:30:37,489 --> 00:30:42,198
will rapidly self destruct as we may see it
on ourselves
348
00:30:42,584 --> 00:30:47,376
So if we do have contact physical contact
with aliens i think it will be beny
349
00:30:47,835 --> 00:30:49,240
My frivolous mind is much taken...
350
00:30:49,275 --> 00:30:53,939
If Intelligent being are reasonbly near why
they have not visited us?
351
00:30:55,386 --> 00:30:58,097
Well, that is a very good question,
let's try to run across to Arthur Clarke?
352
00:30:58,734 --> 00:31:00,781
There are literally
dozens of answers to this
353
00:31:01,469 --> 00:31:07,907
that may have come in a remote past, they
may be visiting us every ten thousands of
years
354
00:31:07,942 --> 00:31:10,719
I mean the universe is a huge large place
and even if there were fleets
355
00:31:11,134 --> 00:31:13,512
of survey ships they are all going on the
cosmos
356
00:31:13,797 --> 00:31:19,313
we shouldn't expect visitors less than
an ice age every thousand years or so
357
00:31:19,870 --> 00:31:24,562
They may know about us, and they may have
put a quarantine in our planet
358
00:31:24,984 --> 00:31:26,503
For pretty good reasons
359
00:31:27,481 --> 00:31:30,563
They may have lost the interest in us, they
may be so much higher
360
00:31:31,465 --> 00:31:34,950
that we must be just a JHHH an inconvenience
if you like
361
00:31:35,633 --> 00:31:40,904
You expect it endlessly.. I think we should
just wait and try to get more evidence
362
00:31:41,527 --> 00:31:44,981
Maybe there are spaces probes saying there
is no intelligent life on earth
363
00:31:46,032 --> 00:31:49,296
They maybe have achieved our television
programs and decide that
364
00:31:49,544 --> 00:31:50,369
that is the case
365
00:31:51,856 --> 00:31:56,247
May I attempt a different
answer to Stephen's question?
366
00:31:56,484 --> 00:31:57,326
Please do Carl Sagan
367
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:06,937
The first large scale commercial
broadcasting on the earth was in the late
1940's
368
00:32:07,223 --> 00:32:11,292
So that was forty years ago.. So you must
imagine
369
00:32:12,138 --> 00:32:17,720
A spherical wave expanding out from the
earth at the velocity of light
370
00:32:18,386 --> 00:32:24,378
Which contain all the JURY of programs of
late 1940's
371
00:32:25,013 --> 00:32:28,907
Since then, that expanding spherical wave
containing
372
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:35,201
The news of a development civilization on
earth has travel some forty light years
373
00:32:35,853 --> 00:32:39,074
Suppose that there are no civilizations
closer than forty light years
374
00:32:39,823 --> 00:32:44,118
Perhaps they aren't here because they don't
know we are about just yet
375
00:32:44,591 --> 00:32:47,099
But in time the message gets to them
376
00:32:47,661 --> 00:32:51,659
And perhaps they'll send a little
expedition to look us over
377
00:32:51,896 --> 00:32:56,389
I liked when I read that when spaces probes
went out
378
00:32:56,742 --> 00:33:02,775
First of all you put the figure of a man and
a woman on the outside
379
00:33:03,225 --> 00:33:06,020
So any alien life would recognize what we
look like
380
00:33:06,335 --> 00:33:10,306
And in the legend probe I think you put a LP
of earth sounds
381
00:33:10,885 --> 00:33:15,835
with instructions and hand signals on how to
work the LP
382
00:33:16,166 --> 00:33:22,606
How do you think anybody would have reacted
if in fact, alien intelligence had heard
this LP?
383
00:33:23,625 --> 00:33:25,947
My guess is that will be something like
384
00:33:26,874 --> 00:33:33,262
"Oh look,
another artifact from some extremely
primitive civilization, which one is this?"
385
00:33:34,276 --> 00:33:35,975
But then some degree of thanks..
386
00:33:36,271 --> 00:33:41,964
we were thoughtful enough to send a message
into the far future which it could in no way
benefit us
387
00:33:42,897 --> 00:33:47,504
Certainly a selfless act. And perhaps it
will be recognize
388
00:33:47,771 --> 00:33:53,743
As a hopeful and optimistic gesture by an
emerge civilization
389
00:33:54,270 --> 00:33:58,519
just setting foot into the great galactic
wilderness
390
00:33:59,169 --> 00:34:00,386
Yes Arthur?
391
00:34:00,635 --> 00:34:02,397
I know what is gonna happen to your voyager
Carl
392
00:34:02,895 --> 00:34:07,159
That will be overtaken one day by
terrestrial spaceship and brought back to
Smithsonian (NASA)
393
00:34:08,085 --> 00:34:14,849
It is certainly technologically possible,
but i hope they let it go on its original
mission
394
00:34:15,392 --> 00:34:20,048
Now, it very nearly 20 years ago since man
landed on the moon
395
00:34:20,443 --> 00:34:24,687
Do you think that we've basically
started trying to get men any further?
396
00:34:25,111 --> 00:34:31,102
Is there any chance of another Neil
Armstrong will set foot on Mars in our
lifetime?
397
00:34:31,791 --> 00:34:37,812
United States and Soviet Union have managed
to BOOBLE TRAP the planet with about 60,000
nuclear weapons
398
00:34:38,078 --> 00:34:40,870
With a little help from Britain friends and
China and Israel
399
00:34:42,434 --> 00:34:48,142
It's a tiny fraction of those weapons is
enough to destroy the participating nations
400
00:34:48,618 --> 00:34:56,579
And certainly the global civilization and
possibly the human species just maybe
401
00:34:57,062 --> 00:35:03,450
It is time for the United States and Soviet
Union to demonstrate that they can undo
402
00:35:03,713 --> 00:35:04,899
This arsenal
403
00:35:05,354 --> 00:35:09,106
That they can demonstrate their ability to
work together on high technology
404
00:35:09,731 --> 00:35:16,719
For peaceful hopeful purposes that carries
us to a beny 21th century
405
00:35:17,398 --> 00:35:25,339
That's why I support the idea of
joint US-Soviet cooperation and
the exploration of Mars
406
00:35:25,976 --> 00:35:32,869
Leading up to an International Men and by
the way Women mission to the planet
407
00:35:33,620 --> 00:35:40,366
Americans and Soviets as representatives of
the human species other nations i presume
will also be involved
408
00:35:41,090 --> 00:35:48,963
Then a glorious, whatever will be few month
period, in which Mars I have a global of it
next to me
409
00:35:49,353 --> 00:35:56,849
In which Mars will be explored. There are
hundreds, for example, hundreds of ancient
river valleys on Mars
410
00:35:57,115 --> 00:36:03,775
Mars is today bondry. It was once much
warmer much wetter, much denser atmosphere,
much more earthlike
411
00:36:04,283 --> 00:36:05,999
What were does conditions like?
412
00:36:06,708 --> 00:36:12,712
Why did an earthlike planet get converted
into this deep Ice Age condition?
413
00:36:13,033 --> 00:36:15,599
That Mars has today?
414
00:36:15,939 --> 00:36:21,879
Is there life there? Could there once be
life? Are there phossils forms?
415
00:36:22,271 --> 00:36:27,876
There are extraordinary enigmatic geological
features on the planet. What is their nature?
416
00:36:28,445 --> 00:36:31,719
There a huge amount of exploration to do
417
00:36:32,100 --> 00:36:39,099
And all of it, every step that I’ve
described, could be before the television
cameras over the world
418
00:36:39,809 --> 00:36:42,499
And we could all participate in such
exploration
419
00:36:43,158 --> 00:36:47,802
Is another danger that the human bacterys
that we take with us
420
00:36:48,376 --> 00:36:56,567
Will pollute and destroy something enourmsly
precious out there simply because we are so
inquisitive about it
421
00:36:56,905 --> 00:36:57,519
Arthur?
422
00:36:57,806 --> 00:37:02,693
Well, if you ask the question "Should the
human beings go to other planets?"
423
00:37:03,083 --> 00:37:08,347
I think the answer to that is: We could had
stayed the Europe and could explore American
by robots
424
00:37:09,097 --> 00:37:13,330
It might have been, it would certainly save
a lot of human lives, but of course
we didn't we went there and lived
425
00:37:14,658 --> 00:37:21,277
In this new continent. Now again Mars like
none of the planets of the solar system is
anything like as beny as
426
00:37:21,312 --> 00:37:23,257
The United States and the other parts of
this planet
427
00:37:23,694 --> 00:37:25,751
But one day people will argue to call them
home
428
00:37:26,449 --> 00:37:29,426
There will me Martians one day and they will
be arguing eventually
429
00:37:30,029 --> 00:37:33,258
And they will think as the earth poison as a
horrible place for themselves to live
430
00:37:33,780 --> 00:37:37,656
Now as to whether will we pollute this
environment: Yes there are some risks to it
431
00:37:38,125 --> 00:37:42,709
Of course colonization always involves a
destruction of what was there first
432
00:37:43,073 --> 00:37:47,800
I'm quite sure in the next century,
In fact already started there is a
conference on the pollution of space
433
00:37:48,304 --> 00:37:53,508
In the United States in a very near future
this is already a serious problem in the
near earth space
434
00:37:54,147 --> 00:37:59,822
But you have to control you have to cut down
forests on this earth to make new cities
435
00:38:00,174 --> 00:38:03,894
On the moon I'm afraid one day we may
have to polish much of the moon with vacuum
436
00:38:04,346 --> 00:38:06,351
Vacuum on Mars, we may have to change the
atmosphere
437
00:38:06,955 --> 00:38:10,252
But i do hope we'll leave most of
the universe in a crystal condition
438
00:38:10,602 --> 00:38:12,879
But our heirs are gonna have to change
ourselves in Mars, I mean we could evolve
differently
439
00:38:14,810 --> 00:38:17,756
Mars will change us. In fact this is part of
the progress
440
00:38:17,791 --> 00:38:21,668
By going into a new environment, by
occupying new biological niches
441
00:38:21,951 --> 00:38:26,324
That's the way we progress and
discover the universe and explore it..
442
00:38:27,043 --> 00:38:28,919
and perhaps fulfill our destiny
443
00:38:29,887 --> 00:38:34,734
Do you think that other planets might have
the same kind of system which there will be
a morality
444
00:38:35,038 --> 00:38:40,352
Which there would be people taking moral
attitudes, which may not necessary be the
same as ours of course?
445
00:38:40,744 --> 00:38:46,915
All societies must have some moral
structure, I mean otherwise
we just can't have a society
446
00:38:47,251 --> 00:38:50,071
We must understand rules and the way to
behave to our neighbors
447
00:38:50,602 --> 00:38:54,853
And even if the society consist of machines,
there must be a machine land
448
00:38:55,135 --> 00:38:58,800
Which they can agree to react together
449
00:38:59,149 --> 00:39:02,415
So morality in some way is essential to the
universe
450
00:39:02,975 --> 00:39:06,590
Now, Professor Hawking in the very last
paragraph of your book
451
00:39:06,993 --> 00:39:11,568
You said that if we discover a compete
theory of the universe
452
00:39:12,191 --> 00:39:20,410
Then it should be in time understandable and
BROUGHT principle to everyone and not just
to scientists
453
00:39:20,911 --> 00:39:28,518
And when that happens, all of us will be
able to start discussing "WHY" rather than
the "HOW" and I quote:
454
00:39:29,007 --> 00:39:37,299
"If we find the answer to that, it should be
the ultimate trying for human reason
for then we will know the mind of god"
455
00:39:37,972 --> 00:39:42,963
Do you think that God can intervene in the
universe as he wants?
456
00:39:43,475 --> 00:39:46,101
Or is god too bound by the laws of science?
457
00:39:50,839 --> 00:39:55,618
The question whether god is bound by the
laws of Science is a bit like the question
458
00:39:56,277 --> 00:40:01,102
Can God make a stone that is so heavy that
he can not lift it?
459
00:40:02,473 --> 00:40:11,249
I don't think that is very useful
to speculate on what god might,
or might not be able to do
460
00:40:12,876 --> 00:40:18,390
Rather, we should examine what he actually
does with the universe we live in
461
00:40:21,223 --> 00:40:26,585
All of our observations suggests that he
operates accordingly to well defined laws
462
00:40:28,817 --> 00:40:31,474
These laws may have been ordained by god
463
00:40:31,881 --> 00:40:35,689
But it seems that he does not intervene in
the universe to break the laws
464
00:40:36,253 --> 00:40:39,535
At least not once when he set a universe
going
465
00:40:43,286 --> 00:40:50,629
However until recently, it was thought that
the laws would necessarily breakdown at the
beginning of the universe
466
00:40:53,928 --> 00:40:59,596
That would had meant, that God would have
had a complete freedom to choose how the
universe began
467
00:41:02,972 --> 00:41:10,673
In the last few years, however we have
realized that the laws of science may hold
at the beginning of time
468
00:41:12,149 --> 00:41:14,601
In that case would have had no freedom
469
00:41:15,971 --> 00:41:19,877
The way the universe began would be
determined by the laws of science
470
00:41:20,969 --> 00:41:22,400
Well, thank you very much.
471
00:41:22,690 --> 00:41:28,104
Carl Sagan, in your introduction to the book
you commented on this
472
00:41:28,334 --> 00:41:33,103
You said this is also a book about God or
perhaps about the absence of God
473
00:41:33,438 --> 00:41:36,781
Because Hawking left nothing for the creator
to do
474
00:41:37,530 --> 00:41:40,553
Now, God of course means many things to many
people.
475
00:41:40,929 --> 00:41:46,148
What sort of God basically are we talking
about when we talk about reading the mind of
God?
476
00:41:47,953 --> 00:41:50,154
Well... I think that's an excellent question
477
00:41:50,654 --> 00:41:55,208
And I'd be the most interested
to hear Stephen Hawking Answer
478
00:41:55,614 --> 00:42:00,639
But just to try to illuminate the range of
possibilities consider two alternatives
479
00:42:01,310 --> 00:42:04,970
One is the notion popular in the West
480
00:42:05,874 --> 00:42:13,780
that God is sort of outsized, elderly white
male with a long white beard seating in a
throne in the sky
481
00:42:14,123 --> 00:42:16,607
And telling the fault of every being
482
00:42:17,519 --> 00:42:24,836
Contrast that with the idea of God in the
mind of, let's say, Spinoza or Einstein
483
00:42:25,436 --> 00:42:30,595
Which was at least very closely with the sum
of the total laws of the universe
484
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:37,551
Now it would be madness to deny that there
are well defined physical laws in the
universe
485
00:42:38,153 --> 00:42:42,777
And if is that what you mean by god there is
no question that God exists
486
00:42:43,147 --> 00:42:50,437
But it's a very remote God what French
called "roíz franiant", a do nothing King
487
00:42:51,330 --> 00:42:55,469
On the other hand the former model of the
one who intervenes daily
488
00:42:56,003 --> 00:43:01,094
For that there seems to be as Dr. Hawking
said "No evidence"
489
00:43:01,415 --> 00:43:06,946
I think that's wise my own
personal feeling to be a little humble
490
00:43:07,442 --> 00:43:13,563
On such matters, we must recognize that we
are dealing with, by definition
491
00:43:13,598 --> 00:43:19,684
"The most difficult things to know the
furtherest from the human experience"
492
00:43:20,137 --> 00:43:26,995
And perhaps we will be able to penetrate a
little way into these mysteries
493
00:43:27,433 --> 00:43:30,229
I think Prof Hawking would like to come in
here
494
00:43:32,614 --> 00:43:35,615
I use God in the same
sense that Einstein did
495
00:43:36,428 --> 00:43:42,270
It is our will the real reason why the is
universe is as it is and why the universe
exists at all
496
00:43:45,089 --> 00:43:53,180
Can i ask Arthur Clarke what he meant when
you said in a interview
497
00:43:53,558 --> 00:43:56,836
I don't believe in God but
I’m extremely interested in it
498
00:43:57,275 --> 00:43:59,714
Well i guess I haven't placed my bet yet
499
00:44:00,267 --> 00:44:04,568
You know when Stephen remarks and Carl
remarks Reminds me that this was said
500
00:44:05,213 --> 00:44:13,274
200 years ago when Napoleon, I think he was
talking with Laplace who publishes theories
of the universe
501
00:44:13,714 --> 00:44:20,169
An Napoleon said "God isn't in it?"
and Laplace replied
"Sr. I have no need for that hypothesis"
502
00:44:21,164 --> 00:44:28,236
Do you think that the church is In fact
beginning to recognize that it may have to
lose its priority
503
00:44:28,711 --> 00:44:36,121
its anonnance as it sounds arbitrary of
these matters and that Science will be allow
to come in as an equal partner
504
00:44:36,715 --> 00:44:41,266
Well, the church, the Roman Catholic Church
is becoming very much more neighboor
505
00:44:41,649 --> 00:44:47,545
I had a pleasure of give a talking in the
Vatican myself when the Academy of Sciences
ask me to
506
00:44:47,984 --> 00:44:52,491
and I met the Pope and of course I quoted
Galileo and so things are moving
507
00:44:53,305 --> 00:44:57,795
In fact are they moving Backwards as well as
Forwards Carl Sagan?
508
00:44:58,103 --> 00:45:04,714
Because I understand that in the earliest
days of civilization then the priests were
in fact what we call the scientists
509
00:45:05,055 --> 00:45:08,918
The ones who could start astronomy and who
could predict eclipses and things
510
00:45:09,224 --> 00:45:15,940
You see the scientists coming back into to a
second position like this or Am i
overstating it?
511
00:45:17,752 --> 00:45:20,880
Well, I hope you are overstating it
512
00:45:22,237 --> 00:45:27,941
I think the essence of the scientific method
is the willingness to admit you are wrong
513
00:45:28,253 --> 00:45:35,097
The willingness to abandon ideas
that don't work and the essence of
religion is not to change anything
514
00:45:35,689 --> 00:45:39,812
Suppose your truth are handed down by some
revered figure
515
00:45:40,413 --> 00:45:45,584
And no one is suppose to make any progress
beyond that because all the truth was
thought to be in hand
516
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,066
And may i talk about setting the agenda for
the future?
517
00:45:49,069 --> 00:46:01,127
My sense is that scientific way of thinking
is questioning some delicate mix of creative
encouragement of new ideas
518
00:46:01,675 --> 00:46:05,365
In the most rigorous and skeptical Scrutiny
of new and old ideas
519
00:46:05,851 --> 00:46:12,224
I think that is the path to the future not
just for science but for all human
institutions
520
00:46:12,726 --> 00:46:16,319
We have to be willing to challenge because
we are in desperate need of change
521
00:46:16,681 --> 00:46:18,377
I have the same question
to you Arthur Clarke
522
00:46:18,902 --> 00:46:23,523
Politics or Priests are setting the agenda
or scientists?
523
00:46:23,978 --> 00:46:27,188
I'm very fan of Pandit Nehru on this,
he once said that
524
00:46:27,538 --> 00:46:34,350
Politics and Religious are obsolete. The
time has come for science and spirituality!
525
00:46:35,365 --> 00:46:39,349
I hear from the clicking that Prof. hawking
would like to come in
526
00:46:42,568 --> 00:46:46,630
I don't think that physics tells us
how to behave to our neighbors
527
00:46:49,211 --> 00:46:53,348
The physics may determinate who our
neighbors are and what planets they live in
528
00:46:53,928 --> 00:46:56,408
But you say that science should be skeptical
and politics
529
00:46:56,651 --> 00:47:00,923
Don't you think that we should
be skeptical about science too?
I mean, can we trust you guys?
530
00:47:02,463 --> 00:47:10,315
I think you should certainly be skeptical,
but my view is that there are no community
of people on the planet
531
00:47:10,751 --> 00:47:15,580
More skeptical than scientists.
It's our stocking trade,
is the life blood of our subject
532
00:47:17,065 --> 00:47:21,613
Science is a self correct subject,
not like Politics!
533
00:47:23,248 --> 00:47:25,173
Well politics is corrected by other forces
534
00:47:26,488 --> 00:47:35,203
Can I ask one question of you all?, is the
question of creativity which fascinates me
535
00:47:35,551 --> 00:47:41,944
Here we have three Enourmsly creative
people. Enourmsly creative inthelects
536
00:47:42,455 --> 00:47:45,225
How in fact does it operate?
537
00:47:45,607 --> 00:47:51,609
Do you, Arthur Clarke, do you should find a
problem that you like to work on
538
00:47:52,002 --> 00:47:53,519
And then look for a solution to it?
539
00:47:54,077 --> 00:47:59,390
I'm not sure what might make
the new creation, and I don't
think i really want to know
540
00:47:59,641 --> 00:48:03,952
And I’m afraid to find, if I discover, that
i will not act naturally
541
00:48:04,256 --> 00:48:06,905
Just found distract
542
00:48:07,437 --> 00:48:09,595
Or a golf man when de think about his swing?
Yes..
543
00:48:10,013 --> 00:48:10,893
So you don't think about that
544
00:48:11,389 --> 00:48:14,262
Carl Sagan, there is a seriou sight to this?
545
00:48:14,647 --> 00:48:18,594
Well..this issue Where creativity comes
from...
546
00:48:19,607 --> 00:48:21,269
I share your fascination with it
547
00:48:22,204 --> 00:48:24,498
I don't think we
understand very much about it
548
00:48:25,441 --> 00:48:31,704
My practice is to
respect my unconscious mind
549
00:48:32,002 --> 00:48:36,718
Who often is much wiser than the conscious
part of me
550
00:48:37,356 --> 00:48:39,450
And pay attention to what is says
551
00:48:40,016 --> 00:48:47,840
In fact, I think this is connected to that
delicate attention at the heart of
Scientific Method i talked about before
552
00:48:48,606 --> 00:48:52,608
The unconscious mind proposes a range of
possibilities
553
00:48:52,985 --> 00:49:00,404
And the conscious mind disposes and it
compares those ideas with the real world
554
00:49:00,763 --> 00:49:04,751
Checks for internal
inconsistencies and so on
555
00:49:05,296 --> 00:49:13,294
I think the creative process is a
partnership between a conscious and
unconscious parts of our minds
556
00:49:13,567 --> 00:49:15,470
At least that is how it seems to me
557
00:49:17,317 --> 00:49:18,583
I'd like to leave the last word on
creativity In fact with Prof Hawking
558
00:49:26,865 --> 00:49:29,254
Just whenever you are ready
559
00:49:33,706 --> 00:49:39,689
I'm just curious I want to find out
how the things works I follow my nose
560
00:49:40,628 --> 00:49:44,973
One thing leads to another and
I don't know what I will find next
561
00:49:46,581 --> 00:49:52,720
Now i think i would like to retreat
a bit into poetry myself because
it's nearly a 150 years ago
562
00:49:52,973 --> 00:49:55,688
Since Mathew Arnold wrote his explandid poem
"The Future"
563
00:49:56,343 --> 00:50:00,937
What was before us we know not and we
know not what will succed
564
00:50:01,619 --> 00:50:06,677
But perhaps if Prof Hawking magnificent
vision and curiosity is realized
565
00:50:07,021 --> 00:50:12,111
we will have proved Mathew Arnold is wrong
before the 150 years are up
566
00:50:12,628 --> 00:50:17,504
Gentlemen to all of you, to Prof Stephen
Hawking, to Dr. Arthur C. Clarke
567
00:50:18,084 --> 00:50:22,457
To you Carl Sagan in America, a enourmous
thanks to all three of you
568
00:50:22,842 --> 00:50:25,035
And to all of you watching Good Night